President-elect Barack Obama campaigned in part on a promise to change the way politics and the federal government works. News these days consists largely of pundits picking apart his press conferences for evidence that he intends to betray those principles, but I for one am not dismissing his campaign rhetoric as the usual cynical ploy just yet. For one reason: all those small-dollar donations.
Historically, politicians have been owned outright by special interests: home-state businesses, religious groups, industrial heavy-hitters, the gun nuts, etc. And by historically, I’d add my understanding of these things goes back to the Teapot Dome scandal — doesn’t it seem quaint that there was a time when people registered shock over news that the Interior Department giving out oil leases to its friends? Ah, innocence. Anyway, my understanding of special interest influence is that its roots come in a few different forms. First, there are the guys who owe their entire careers to one — think of Bush II, crafted for politics by the oil industry. Then there are the guys who rely on such interests for re-election (funds and influence): can Orrin Hatch hold his seat without the Mormon Church? Could John Dingell have survived without the automakers’ support? Then there are the guys who appease special interests out of fear for the trouble they can make… see virtually every rural dem in Congress who votes against gun control.
Who made Obama? Who does he rely on to win? Who could possibly put the fear of losing in him? Obama rode a veritable tsunami of small-dollar donations into office, donations from individuals who were united solely by their belief that he’d be a good president. Obviously there are issue constituencies in there, and if he goes on a rampage against every principle he ever publicly supported, those donations might go away. But it’s hard to single out any one constituency that he should fear to cross. Assuming he governs in accordance with his apparent beliefs (most of which enjoy a majority of popular support), he is remarkably unbeholden to the usual, damaging interests.
The only pitfall out there are interests which have enough power to hurt his presidency, either by de-legitimizing it in real time or by crippling his reelection. He seems poised to take on the oil companies, and their sway is legend, so we’ll see about that. He’s also got the insurance companies in his sights. The defense industry is another huge one. Guns, tobacco and religion aren’t likely first-term flash points. Can’t think of anything else.
IMHO anyway, I don’t see how Obama needs the support of oil, HMOs, or defense contractors. He just won an election with presumably not an ounce of support from these realms, and did so by dominating the cash race. He probably does need to tread lightly enough not to make too many mortal enemies, so if possible he might try to include these interests in making change rather than cutting them out entirely. And he definitely needs Congress on his side, including those members who are still owned by special interests.
Anyway, color me naive, but I believe he has a chance to really alter the political landscape, thanks to his election’s relative independece from any single noisy constituency. Here’s hoping.
Thanks for the post, been thinking similar thoughts, had an interesting conversation the other night with two early Obama supporters who are now disillusioned because of his cabinet picks. That sure was a fast honeymoon.
Yeah, the carping about his cabinet hires is unwatchable. “Real change” can only happen if Obama surrounds himself with people nobody’s ever heard of? Whatever. He had a lot of chances to become stupid over the last two years and he passed on all of them, so I don’t see why we should think that’s what’s happening now.
I couldn’t have more confidence that President-elect Obama is going to effect sweeping change, not only to the way our government functions, but to our culture, as well. I think that he truly is as smart and sincere as he seems. Sure he has the charisma, but we have seen charismatic political figures before, who had a lot of dark corners behind the winning smiles. I feel that behind Obama’s public persona is a guy who genuinely wants to do the right thing for U.S. and her people – to bring them together and reignite the spirit of the American dream. I think that at the end of his terms as president, this country is going to be completely transformed. And, unlike the transformation we have undergone in the past 8 years, for the better this time.
(speaking of dreams, here is my new one: Caroline Kennedy elected first female president in 2016)